Learn · 06 / 10

6 · Detailed balance and currents — the visual heart

Picture the space of joint choices — every combination of everyone's action — as a lattice, with the stationary probability of the logit-revision dynamics sitting on it like standing water.

In a potential game the water is still. Along every edge, forward flow equals backward flow — detailed balance — so the net probability current is zero everywhere, and the entropy production rate σEP=12a,a[π(a)w(aa)π(a)w(aa)]logπ(a)w(aa)π(a)w(aa)\sigma_{\mathrm{EP}} = \tfrac12\sum_{a,a'} \big[\pi(a)w(a{\to}a') - \pi(a')w(a'{\to}a)\big]\log\frac{\pi(a)w(a{\to}a')}{\pi(a')w(a'{\to}a)} is zero. Strategic equilibrium is thermodynamic equilibrium.

In a harmonic game the water is still in total — the distribution is stationary — but it is turning: probability flows in closed loops around the lattice (rock beats scissors beats paper beats rock…), the current J* is nonzero, and the system dissipates continuously. This is a non-equilibrium steady state, the same object physics uses for driven systems, and it is where price cycles, allocation churn, and strategic circulation live. Measured: RPS at λ = 2 carries visible circulation and σ_EP ≈ 3.4; the same meter on any potential game reads below 10⁻¹².

Two things the meters taught us that we did not predict: dissipation and harmonic fraction co-move almost perfectly along the α axis, yet within the near-harmonic regime dissipation and response-asymmetry decouple entirely (they are different physical objects — a global flux versus a local derivative); and at high λ potential games escape criticality altogether, because play concentrates and the choice fluctuations that carry all these effects die out. Both are in the findings log with their regeneration seeds.

So what would you do differently?

If your market cycles rather than settling, waiting for it to stabilise is not a strategy — it will not. Time your moves against the cycle instead of trying to end it.

Find out whether yours cycles
▶ try it · the joint profile space — where the water turns
live float64 solver
P1 action →P2 action →
rationality λ = 1.50
0.3 · noise6 · sharp